Solving the Price Is Right by Justin L. Bergner

Author:Justin L. Bergner [Bergner, Justin L.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781633888524
Publisher: Prometheus

PICK A NUMBER

Pick a Number had a 56% win rate (23 out of 41) and a median prize value of $8,200, leading to median earnings of $4,600. Nine times Pick a Number was played for five-digit prizes, including three cars, resulting in a higher average prize value of $9,450. All but two of the four-digit prizes involved picking the first digit in the prize, and all five-digit prizes involved picking the second digit. Contestants were five for nine when picking the second digit in a five-digit prize and seventeen for thirty when picking the first digit in a four-digit prize, for a similar 55%-plus win rate.

In seventeen out of thirty instances when picking the first number, the price was the middle choice, and in thirteen instances it was the high choice. The low choice was never the price, even the two times the low digit was 6 and not 4 or 5. Contestants seemed to grasp this, picking the middle number twenty times, the high number nine times, and the low number only once. It should therefore come as no surprise that the win rate when picking the first number was north of 50%.

The lowest number was also never the correct choice for the second digit in five-digit prizes. Here the contestant avoided the lowest option all nine times. The car setups did prove difficult, however. Car choices were $1,000 to $2,000 apart, and in the context of prizes that were two to three times more expensive than in a typical Pick a Number game. On the Christmas special in season 47, the contestant had to choose between $21,194, $23,194, and $25,194 for a Toyota Prius. He chose $25,194, and the price was $23,194. Contestants were much more successful when the pricing options were farther apart, as occurred on June 12, 2018, when the contestant played for a six-night trip to Buenos Aires. The choices were $10,600, $13,600, and $16,600. The contestant picked $13,600 and won.

Key Tip

Lean toward the middle option but do not hesitate to choose the high option if the prize seems on the expensive side. When picking the first number, never pick the low option.

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